基于统计和塑性区的隧道深浅埋划分方法研究

我国现行公路、铁路隧道规范中隧道深浅埋分界深度公式是基于小跨度隧道的统计资料得出的回归公式,该公式对于跨度较大的隧道的适用性存在明显的不足。笔者通过对隧道规范建议的深浅埋分界深度与对应深度的塑性区半径进行回归分析,拟合出了两者之间的关系式;将拟合出来的关系式带入圆形隧道的塑性区理论式中,获得了隧道深浅埋划分深度的新的计算公式。将本文方法计算结果与现场实测资料和模型试验进行对比,验证本文公式的科学合理性。对比结果表明:(1)在大跨度时本文计算结果与统计结果和模型试验结果十分吻合;(2)在小跨度时本文计算结果与规范计算结果十分吻合。因此,本文方法为在围岩等级较低情况下的深浅埋分界深度计算提供了新的思路和计算方法。     

Sensitivity of uncertainties in performance prediction of deteriorating concrete structures

Deterioration models for the condition and reliability prediction of civil infrastructure facilities involve numerous assumptions and simplifications. Furthermore, input parameters of these models are fraught with uncertainties. A Bayesian methodology has been developed by the authors, which uses information obtained through health monitoring to improve the quality of prediction. The sensitivity of prior and posterior predicted performance to different input parameters of the deterioration models, and the effect of instrument and measurement uncertainty, is investigated in this paper. The results quantify the influence of these uncertainties and highlight the efficacy of the updating methodology based on integrating monitoring data. It has been found that the probabilistic posterior performance predictions are significantly less sensitive to most of the input uncertainties. Furthermore, updating the performance distribution based on ‘event’ outcomes is likely to be more beneficial than monitoring and updating of the input parameters on an individual basis.     

A continuous Bayesian network for earth dams' risk assessment: methodology and quantification

Dams' safety is highly important for authorities around the world. The impacts of a dam failure can be enormous. Models for investigating dam safety are required for helping decision-makers to mitigate the possible adverse consequences of flooding. A model for earth dam safety must specify clearly possible contributing factors, failure modes and potential consequences of dam failure. Probabilistic relations between variables should also be specified. Bayesian networks (BNs) have been identified as tools that would assist dam engineers on assessing risks. BNs are graphical models that facilitate the construction of a joint probability distribution. Most of the time, the variables included in a model for earth dam risk assessment involve continuous quantities. The presence of continuous random variables makes the implementation of discrete BNs difficult. An alternative to discrete BNs is the use of non-parametric continuous BNs, which will be briefly described in this article. As an example, a model for earth dams' safety in the State of Mexico will be discussed. Results regarding the quantification of conditional rank correlations through ratios of unconditional rank correlations have not been presented before and are introduced herein. While the complete application of the model for the State of Mexico is presented in an accompanying paper, here some results regarding model use are shown for demonstration purposes. The methods presented in this article can be applied for investigating risks of failure of civil infrastructures other than earth dams.     

Economic development and construction productivity in Malaysia

The productivity of the construction industry has a significant effect on national economic growth. Gains from higher construction productivity flow through the economy, as all industries rely on construction to some extent as part of their business investment. Contractions and expansions of economic activity are common phenomena in an economy. Three construction cycles occurred between the years 1970 and 2011 in Malaysia. The relationships between construction productivity and economic development are examined by the partial correlation method to establish the underlying factors driving the change in construction productivity. Construction productivity is statistically significantly correlated with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in a positive direction for the 1985–98 and 1998–2009 cycles, but not the 1970–85 cycle. Fluctuations in construction activities and the influx of foreign workers underlie the changes of construction productivity in the 1985–98 cycle. There was less fluctuation in construction activities in the 1998–2009 cycle, with changes being mainly due to the fiscal stimulation policies of the government in attempting to stabilize the economy. The intensive construction of mega-projects resulted in resource constraints and cost pressures during the 1980s and 1990s. A better management of the ‘boom-bust’ nature of the construction business cycle is required to maintain the capability and capacity of the industry.     

Applications of dynamic programming in survey engineering

Recent research has shown that probabilistic and non-probabilistic dynamic programming techniques can be applied beneficially in the solution of optimal design and management problems in surveying. The survey design system is presented. A non-probabilistic dynamic programming solution of a second order, one dimensional optimal survey design problem is outlined and some applications of Bayesian dynamic programming to survey logistics and management problems are demonstrated. A useful 'technology transfer' technique is included to illustrate one method of introducing systems theory and operations research to survey engineering.     

道路交叉口车流检测策略及排队统计方法研究

基于3组道路交叉口交通信息检测器的布设,可实现对交叉口交通流的运行状态信息检测.研究车队头车的特征、判断逻辑和方法,并分析车队尾车的判断逻辑和车队追加的方法,进而提出排队统计开始时刻、排队统计策略,以及排队算法,力求获得较为准确的排队数据.车队检测方法、路口排队统计方法和排队消散方法将为交通控制策略提供信息和技术基础.     

Wind characteristics and energy potential assessment in Akure,South West Nigeria: econometrics and policy implications

This paper analysed 11 years of daily mean wind-speed data, measured at Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, using Weibull and Rayleigh distribution functions. While both distributions showed good agreements in extreme-value estimation patterns, investigation of their wind-speed characteristics modelling criteria, using goodness-of-fit statistics, revealed that the wind data followed the Weibull more than Rayleigh. Monthly wind-speed of Akure city ranged from 1.41 to 4.24 m/s by the Weibull fittings and from 1.40 to 4.16 m/s by the Rayleigh fittings. Overall results, of 2.71 m/s (Weibull) or 2.70 m/s (Rayleigh) mean wind-speed and 18.51 W/m² (Weibull) or 22.26 W/m² (Rayleigh) mean power density, indicated Akure a low wind-speed site, requiring low wind-speed turbine for generating wind energy. Econometric analyses of power output simulations using such turbine system resulted in affordable wind energy cost. These bear policy implications for sustainable wind energy usage in this and similar regions of the world.     

混凝土结构抗力基本参数的调查统计分析

以西安市、咸阳市及其周边县市的混凝土结构为对象,对1 000余栋混凝土结构进行了现场调查,统计分析了混凝土强度、钢筋性能及构件几何参数,并重点分析了制备工艺、搅拌方法和施工水平等因素对材料性能和构件几何参数的影响。研究结果表明:自拌混凝土和商品混凝土的强度均值相近,但商品混凝土强度变异较小;除现浇板的混凝土强度值较高外,其余构件的混凝土强度接近;建筑公司的资质越高,混凝土的强度越高且变异越小。钢筋性能良好,各生产厂家性能差异不大。构件显性几何参数控制较好,但隐性几何参数控制较差且变异很大。     

桩墙式挡土结构的变形模式及其识别

基坑挡土结构的侧向变形数据是反映基坑工程安全与环境控制的重要指标之一。由于现场地质条件与施工过程的复杂性,实际发生的挡土结构变形与设计计算结果在变形值大小及分布形态上存在差异。基于工程经验及挡土结构的受力变形原理,总结归纳了挡土结构典型的变形模式及其特征,在此基础上,基于贝叶斯概率准则实现对挡土结构实测变形的整体模式及局部模式识别。依此不仅可判明实际施工工况的变化或可能存在的工程缺陷,同时由于其可以提供非正常变形模式的预警,从而弥补了现行规范中仅以变形大小和速率为预警指标的不足,对于提高信息化施工的准确性和及时性具有重要意义。     

福建省绿色建筑增量成本分析

福建省绿色建筑的政策制定和推广亟需现有绿色建筑项目的增量成本数据作为支撑。本文统计了典型项目的增量成本及其构成要素,结合福建省基础条件和项目的具体情况进行分析,并与现有统计结果进行比较。